TL;DR (generated · confidence: high)

PBOT's requested budget is insufficient to address the City's transportation infrastructure maintenance backlog and prevent further deterioration. The five-year forecast assumes status quo service levels from FY 2024-25, with projections based on GTR fund revenues (primarily State Highway Fund transfers and parking fees), personnel cost inflation of 8.8% for health benefits plus COLA and 2% merit increases, and parking meter revenue modeling that assumes 22 new enforcement FTEs will drive 5% annual compliance improvements.

Key points (each cites a PDF page):

Requested budget insufficient to address known maintenance backlog and prevent transportation infrastructure deterioration (p. 1396)
Five-year forecast assumes status quo current service levels as adopted in FY 2024-25 budget (p. 1396)
Revenue projections based on General Transportation (GTR) fund discretionary cash balances from State Highway Fund transfers and local parking fees/fines (p. 1396)
State Highway Fund revenues forecasted using October 2024 ODOT forecast; no future tax rate increases assumed beyond scheduled increases in legislation (p. 1396)
Personnel costs assume 8.8% health benefit cost increases, COLA for all employees, and 2% annual merit increases for union-represented employees (p. 1396)
Parking meter revenue forecast uses machine learning regression model by EcoNorthwest, incorporates inflation-indexed rates and 5% annual meter compliance increase from 22 authorized enforcement FTEs (p. 1396)
Fixing Our Streets program partially addresses funding gap but additional funding required to achieve state of good repair (p. 1396)

👥 22 enforcement FTEs · 📋 Fixing Our Streets · 🏛️ PBOT

PBOT’S Five-Year Base Financial Forecast

Source: PDF p. 1396 · raw: 1396

Breadcrumb: 6 pw › PW---FYFP---ALL_0 › Executive Summary › PBOT’S Five-Year Base Financial Forecast

PBOT’s Requested Budget falls far short of fully addressing the Bureau’s known maintenance backlog. The level of investment assumed in the forecast is not sufficient to prevent the City’s transportation infrastructure from further deterioration. PBOT and the City have taken steps to address the gap through the Fixing Our Streets program but additional funding is required to prevent further capital deterioration and bring the City’s transportation network to a state of good repair. PBOT’S Five-Year Base Financial Forecast Methodology The most important statutory forecast is presented in Table 3 and discussed below. This forecast assumes status quo current service levels, as adopted in the FY 2024-25 budget, are maintained throughout the five-year forecast window. On that basis, the resulting annual deficits are calculated using the revenue and costs forecasts described in the next section. Proposed changes to funding sources and service levels, including staffing levels, are reflected in the Bureau’s Decision Packages rather than this baseline forecast. Base Assumptions The revenue and expenditure projections found in Table 3 are based on the following assumptions: • The statutorily relevant funds are the discretionary cash balances held in the General Transportation (GTR fund) Fund – the majority of which accrue from State Highway Fund transfers and local parking fees and fines. • State Highway Fund (SHF) revenues are projected with a high degree of historical accuracy by ODOT and reflect its most recent forecast of October 2024. Revenue forecasts include all scheduled increases to gas tax, weight-mile tax, and DMV fees included in existing legislation. Future increases to State Highway Fund tax rates are not assumed. • Forecasted costs of procuring the personnel, materials and services required to continue delivering PBOT’s current services were calculated using inflationary forecasts provided by the City Economist as of December of 2024. Personnel cost estimates account for presumptive 8.8% increases in health benefit costs, assume that City employees will receive a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), and a 2% annual merit increase for union represented employees. • GTR-appropriable interest earnings on cash balances in the Transportation Operating Fund were computed using interest rate forecasts produced by the City Treasury. • PBOT’s parking meter revenue forecast is the product a regression model estimated with a machine learning algorithm implemented by EcoNorthwest, a respected consulting firm with an extensive history of economic modeling for local and regional governments. Importantly, our revenue model incorporates the fact that meter rates and parking permit prices are indexed to inflation. Our model also assumes that the increase of 22 enforcement FTEs authorized in FY25 will increase meter compliance by 5% per year for five years. 3

Parent: Executive Summary · PDF: p. 1396